|The GFS model forecast by the National Weather Service|
for 4:00 p.m. Thursday PST
taken from Cliff Mass's blog discussed in text
And, what did I find?An essay on the "lack of storminess and ill-weather" in the Thanksgiving prediction! Cliff usually takes on the Seattle Times, but he missed a chance to take on CNN today! If you read the text of the CNN article, you can see that they are talking about yesterday, today and Tuesday mostly, not about Wednesday through Friday, but the headlines are certainly misleading.
The only place on the mainland to see significant precipitation is far NW Washington State and, Cliff says, "not many folks live there and most of those watch Canadian TV. In other words, they don't count!" (The comments posted today reflects that he has a tolerant readership up in that area of Washington!) He really is in good form in this post. High pressure dominates most of the nation, there are no low pressure systems influencing the mainland (there is one noticeable one off the coast of southern California). He also points out that today (Nov. 25th) is the 6th straight day without rain in the Seattle area, when the normal chance of rain at this time of year is 65%. It looks like we could squeek by through Wednesday without rain, with some moving in on Thanksgiving. That would be 8 straight days without rain, and according to him, the chance of that is about 3%.
But there's more to the story. According to the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, Wednesday could be messy in the midwest and east coast. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below average in the central east coast and upper midwest regions, and a front over the Great Lakes will produce lake effect snow over the Great Lakes through Wednesday (this does bring back memories of Thanksgiving storms where I grew up in Northwester Pennsylvania, where we got the lake effect snow from Lake Erie). A storm developing over the Central gulf coast will move toward this Great Lakes disturbance to produce moderate to heavy rain that will move from the central Gulf Coast into the Appalachians by Tuesday morning. This system of rain will then move east to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and expand into Northern New England by Wednesday morning. Snow will expand into the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday evening and Wednesday. So, in detail, it's complicated and worth reading the various forecasts/news articles carefully.
As, Cliff also pointed out, Thanksgiving and the first day of Chanukah coincide this year, the first time since 1888, and the next time may be 77,000 years from now! Compounded with the fact that Comet Ison will be the closest to the sun and brightest that same day, as Cliff says , "Happy Thanksgivukkah", or maybe better, "Happy IsThanksgivukkah!"