Super-typhoon Neoguri ("racoon") approaches Okinawa

Super-typhoon Neoguri, first super-typhoon of 2014
imaged on July 6 (?) by NOAA/EPA

A quote from my (hard working scientist) friend on Okinawa sent on Monday night, PDT: "The storm has been here since yesterday night. So far nothing comparable to the big storm last year. That one was only category 3 by the time it reached Okinawa, but a typhoon's power is concentrated in a narrow ring around the eye, and last year we were right there in the eye.  The current storm might be stronger but we are only exposed to the outer arms, at least so far, and the effects have been mild. The sound was terrifying last year; now it is merely annoying....I should be working, of course, but I have found that it is not easy for me to work during a typhoon. Perhaps I should try some cooking. I need some pasta sauce, and I have got all the ingredients in the fridge!"


Three inches of rain PER HOUR??? I wonder for how many hours!! Waves up to 14 meters (45')? I have friends on Okinawa and  wish them well (and also asked them to send a first hand report!) The storm is expected to work its way up to mainland Japan by Wednesday. The highest danger is for Miyako-jima, in the center of the archipelago.
     As I write this (Monday a.m. PDT) gusts of up to 270 km/hour (160 miles per hour) are expected, and the Japanese national weather agency is saying that this may be the worst storm in decades. This is the first storm of hurricane season there, and it is apparently hitting rather early in the season. The US evacuated some of its plane from Okinawa in advance of the storm.

Projected path and conditions, from the Japan Meteorological Agency

In my last post, I started by pondering the effect of El Nino on droughts in Japan, but did not address typhoon. But, according to research led by Ryuzaburo Yamamoto at Kyoto University and the Japan Weather Association, El Nino increases the strength of typhoons and increases typhoon-related damage in Japan. The conclusion was based on a study of typhoons over the 48-year period between 1951 and 1999. El Nino's push warm water toward the coast of Peru. Therefore El Nino storms travel further than non-El Nino storms across the Pacific toward Japan, giving them more time over warm waters before reaching Japan.

Damage from typhoons in such years is, on average, three times greater than in La Nina years, even though the average number (16.1) is less than in La Nina years (18.2). Pressures in the center of the typhoons, a measure of their strength, are, however, lower in El Nino years, producing stronger typhoons. The average number of days in which the strength (as measured by the low core pressures) was 46.3 days for El Nino and only 26.9 days for La Nina years. Average storm radius was 235.9 km vs. 180.4 in La Nina years, another measure of the effect of El Nino.

In summary, here, in the last figure, is the Accuweather forecast for the west Pacific for 2014.