|Super-typhoon Neoguri, first super-typhoon of 2014|
imaged on July 6 (?) by NOAA/EPA
Three inches of rain PER HOUR??? I wonder for how many hours!! Waves up to 14 meters (45')? I have friends on Okinawa and wish them well (and also asked them to send a first hand report!) The storm is expected to work its way up to mainland Japan by Wednesday. The highest danger is for Miyako-jima, in the center of the archipelago.
As I write this (Monday a.m. PDT) gusts of up to 270 km/hour (160 miles per hour) are expected, and the Japanese national weather agency is saying that this may be the worst storm in decades. This is the first storm of hurricane season there, and it is apparently hitting rather early in the season. The US evacuated some of its plane from Okinawa in advance of the storm.
|Projected path and conditions, from the Japan Meteorological Agency|
Damage from typhoons in such years is, on average, three times greater than in La Nina years, even though the average number (16.1) is less than in La Nina years (18.2). Pressures in the center of the typhoons, a measure of their strength, are, however, lower in El Nino years, producing stronger typhoons. The average number of days in which the strength (as measured by the low core pressures) was 46.3 days for El Nino and only 26.9 days for La Nina years. Average storm radius was 235.9 km vs. 180.4 in La Nina years, another measure of the effect of El Nino.
In summary, here, in the last figure, is the Accuweather forecast for the west Pacific for 2014.