|Hurricane tracks for the 2005 season, from NOAA|
I've been curious about the likely track that Hurricane Katia will take, and thought that it would be interesting to look at the tracks that other hurricanes have taken when the have been about where Katia is today (longitude about 55 W, latitude about 20 N.) It didn't take long to figure out that hurricanes seem to be distinct individuals with a mind of their own! No wonder hurricane forcasting is so difficult! One NOAA scientist interviewed this week commented that they had had the track of Irene predicted fairly accurately, but that getting the intensity right is the difficult part.
|Katia and its project path, Saturday Sept. 3 to Thurs Sept. 8|
It's difficult to control formatting in Blogger, but I've tried to make these two images similar in latitude scale. Notice how the cones of uncertainty for Katia and Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico are just overlapping.
|Trajectory predicted 9/05/11|
More information is available here.